meat production 1.7% to 333 million tonnes this year if the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) prognosis is realized.
The decline in production is affected by the coronary crisis, animal diseases and drought, according to the news agency. Bloomberg.
The change is historic, as it would mean meat production falling for the second year in a row. Before last year, the decline in production was last seen in 1961.
This year, the decline in production is due in particular to the decline in pork production in Asia, where operations have suffered from the spread of African swine fever (ASF). In addition, beef production has declined in the United States and Australia. Poultry meat production continues to grow, but at a slower pace.
Pellervon Economic Research PTT estimates in its April forecastthat world meat production will increase this year. PTT Agricultural Economist Suvi Rinta-Kiikka says the forecast has been based mainly on growth in Chinese consumer demand and European production.
“However, Korona has brought big changes to the economy and outlook,” says Rinta-Kiikka.
“In production, especially for broilers in Europe, embryos and eggs have had to be destroyed in chick production, as exports have fallen.”
As early as April, PTT stated in its forecast that the growth of meat production would be lower than expected due to the interest rate crisis. Rinta-Kiikka says that there are no major changes in meat production and consumption in sight. Korona also produces great uncertainty in the forecasts.
Natural Resources Center Luke Special Researcher Liisa Keto also notes that it cannot yet be said that meat consumption will continue to fall.
“I would like to look at a longer timeline. Based on a couple of years of statistics, it cannot be concluded that this will continue to be the case, ”says Keto.
Keto does not believe that the coronary crisis will have a major impact on the future of meat production.
“I would say that meat production is not going downhill even after the corona. There are so many variables behind the changes, ”says Keto.
production in addition, world meat consumption is falling for the second year in a row. An average consumption of 42.4 kg per person is forecast for this year, which would mean a decrease of 2.8 per cent.
Finland consumed less meat last year. According to Luke, the Finns at that time ate almost 80 kilos of meat per person, including game and offal. Total consumption decreased by about 1.8 per cent from the previous year, or 1.5 kilograms per capita.
According to Rinta-Kiika, PTT estimates that meat consumption in Finland will continue to decline this year.
“Consumption is sure to fall. From the beginning of January to April, consumption was 2% lower than last year. Demand for red meat has been even lower than expected, ”says Rinta-Kiikka.
The last time meat consumption in Finland saw a clear decline was in the recession of the 1990s. Since then, consumption has increased almost year on year.
Koronakriisi has also affected meat movements around the world. Restrictions imposed as a result of the disease situation have brought, for example, logistical bottlenecks which the FAO predicts will affect meat trade. Several slaughterhouses have also been found clusters of coronavirus infections.
International meat trade is forecast to grow to 37 million tonnes in 2020, up 2.4 percent from last year. However, the growth rate will slow significantly from 6.8 percent last year.
In China, meat continues to taste to an increasing extent and meat imports are expected to grow 24 percent from last year. Meat, on the other hand, is relatively more exported from Brazil, the United States, EU countries and Britain, for example.
In early July, China was said to have banned several butchers import of products. The ban list has included butchers from Brazil, Canada and Germany, for example.
Last year, the EU produced 47,720 million kilograms of meat, including Britain. Among the EU countries, the largest meat producers are Germany and Spain. In the United States, meat production totaled 44,830 million kilograms and in Brazil 27,810 million kilograms.
Last year, 400 million kilos of pork, beef, poultry and lamb were produced in Finland, according to statistics compiled by Kantar TNS Agri.
Luken Keto emphasizes that Finland mainly consumes domestic meat, which is also considered safe. According to the meat information, the domestic consumption rate of total meat consumed in Finland was 80.3 per cent last year.